ATTENTION!
What are the advantages for Russia & China if there is a delayed decision by the United States?
SITREP FOLLOWS:
First, I have no definitive evidence confirming specific actions by Russia or China during this upcoming period. This analysis is based on personal experience. However, there is clear evidence of previous & long-term support by both nations for the Iranian regime. In war, delays usually advantage the defender & allow time to improve their position (tactical & strategic)
Russia's Strategic Benefits:
1. The primary advantage to a delay provides a great distraction & diverts American attention & resources from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
2. By Trump canceling a meeting w/ Zelensky to focus on the Middle East, Russia may face less U.S. pressure on its actions in Ukraine.
3. Russia will use this time to strategically consolidate, gain political & diplomatic capital by acting as an international broker through organizations like the UN.
4. Tactically, this period allows Russian military forces to consolidate, reorganize, refit &, if necessary, be replaced. Essentially, Russian military commanders, if smart (& they are), will consolidate & reposition their forces to gain positional advantage.
5. Russia could use the delay to bolster IR's air defenses, potentially supplying advanced systems like the S-400 or other military support. Doing so would enhance IR's resilience against IS or potential U.S. strikes, aligning w/ Russia's interest in maintaining IR as a key ally. This action is not out of the question. If the U.S. can provide for one side, we must consider the fact that Russia will provide for the other.
6. The conflict has driven a 15% increase in Russian oil prices, benefiting Russia's economy, which relies heavily on energy exports. Guarantee, a prolonged delay only helps Russia's economy & keeps Middle East tensions high further disrupting global oil markets.
China's Strategic Benefits:
1. China clearly sees this as a major opportunity for them to gain vastly more regional influence. China will use this window to expand diplomatic, economic, & military options across the Middle East. Like it or not, they already have far more influence than we truly understand.
2. China will position themselves as a neutral or mediating party (they are anything but).
3. China will strengthen ties with IR & other regional players, countering U.S. dominance in the region. Everyone needs to understand the "region" is really the "trans-region", & we must take into account the Central Asian Republic nations as well East Africa & those nations bordering the Eastern Med. For instance, the Red Sea & the Suez Canal are vital supply lines & must remain open.
4. The war provides a major distraction for Taiwan & will reduce attention on the looming Indo-Pacific theater of war. They will view this as a strategic opening to advance their objectives regarding Taiwan. For instance, increasing military maneuvers or economic pressure, knowing there is less attention or less interference (a high pucker factor in the Indo-Pacific for sure).
5. Prolonged uncertainty in the Middle East could keep oil prices volatile, benefiting China's strategic petroleum reserves or its energy negotiations w/ other suppliers. It would be very wise for America to fill up our strategic oil reserves now.
6. The CCP will capitalize on global market instability to strengthen their position in trade or investment deals.
Again, there is no direct evidence of Russia or China conducting any of the active measures I'm addressing, but trust, just as we have our situation room busy, Russia & China do as well.
Pray for President Trump. God knows we are experiencing historic times & our readiness as a nation is in a considerably different geo-strategic posture than it was at any other time in the last 100 years.
