ATTENTION!
Israel struck Iran with a surprise attack on 12 June. There have been many reports out regarding the actions, reactions, & counteractions, all components of this war. The following is an assessment of the IS campaign & it effectiveness. America has a lot at stake here, never mind gaining or losing more prestige on the world stage. Let's face it, the wars in AFG and Iraq did us no favors.
It is now clear the IS campaign consists of at least four phases:
1. The initial surprise attack with a continuing series of airstrikes.
2. Expected Iranian retaliation by IS.
3. IS sustained operations
4. Plans for & execution of escalation operations.
The evidence leans toward IS achieving massive tactical successes, but strategic goals remain incomplete & there is controversy over the extent of damage to IR’s nuclear program & U.S. involvement.
Phases & Performance:
Overall: The IS campaign against IR, appears to be progressing through multiple phases, each with varying levels of success.
Airstrike Phase: IS launched a well planned & coordinated airstrike targeting IR nuclear sites like Natanz & Fordow, military installations, & key personnel, including top generals & nuclear scientists.
Performance: I assess this phase was highly effective, achieving air superiority & destroying over 130 strategic targets, including command centers & missile factories, within 48 hours.
IR Retaliation Phase (clearly considered & prepared for by IS): IR responded with at least 10 waves of missile strikes & drone attacks, hitting IS sites like a hospital & an oil refinery, causing civilian casualties.
Performance: IR’s efforts were largely ineffective, with about 90% of attacks intercepted by IS’s Iron Dome & U.S. systems, limiting damage despite some civilian impact.
Sustained Operations Phase: IS is continuing to target specific IR assets, focusing on remaining nuclear facilities & high-value individuals, with ongoing operations as of the past 24 hrs.
Performance: I assess Israel is achieving mixed results. They are degrading IR’s capabilities, key sites like Fordow appear to remain intact, requiring further action.
Escalatory Phase: There is a growing possibility of U.S. involvement, especially to target hardened sites like Fordow, which could significantly escalate the conflict & bring in other global & nuclear capable nations aligned against each other.
Performance: Uncertain at this phase because it depends on decisions from DJT. There does not appear to be any American appetite for “boots on the ground” (rightly so in my judgement) & there is no apparent direct military action that can be confirmed at this stage, but there is significant support being provided.
Assessment; IS has shown superior tactical dominance, an exquisite level of intelligence collection & targeting prowess (to be admired by warriors of this profession), BUT fully dismantling IR’s nuclear program remains a massive challenge.
Bottom Line: The conflict will continue for many more weeks unless there is a cease fire of some sort agreed to & there remains clear potential for even broader escalation.
My assessment, given the “unconditional surrender” call by our President, for success to be achieved, there will have to be a MINIMUM of three outcomes:
1. NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
2. New IR leadership (preferably chosen by the Iranian people).
3. ALL IR proxies (Hamas, HZ, Houthis) be completely dismantled or, at least, severely diminished with no further support of any kind by IR.
It is a no brainer this has been an incredibly complex conflict with both tactical wins and select strategic uncertainties shaping its future. I guarantee the world is closely monitoring all military actions, diplomatic efforts, & international responses. For those who care about America’s Future, it will be crucial to understanding the various antagonists as well as the world’s responses as things further evolve (or erode).
