ATTENTION!
SITREP #11
The IR regime’s military & its capabilities as well as its vulnerabilities are not well understood by the average American & need to be. The reason is because we find ourselves in a different place than we were merely 24 hours ago. Keep in mind, we've fought for two plus decades on both sides of IR w/ very little strategic success. Iraq is likely controlled by Iran, & we retreated under fire from AFG. We must figure out how to fight for peace & get out of these wars.
Our U.S. strategic position, given the ongoing conflict between IS & IR, & now w/ even more direct U.S. military involvement changes the global equation. There are now direct threats here in the homeland & Americans abroad have been issued a travel advisory.
Restating what I assess as necessary objectives for IS to achieve are as follows; 1) An Iran w/ no nuclear weapons, 2) Regime change (if Khamenei stays in charge due to some negotiated peace deal, I personally don’t believe IS can declare victory, also the declaration of “unconditional surrender” by POTUS will have to be further defined if Khamenei is still in charge when this war ends. True regime change MUST come from the people of Iran & a reminder that ANY regime change comes w/ massive challenges & finally, 3) Defeating IR's surrogate forces.
What follows are IR's capabilities and strengths:
They still possess a large military w/ approximately 610,000 active personnel & 350,000 reserves, providing significant numbers for defense & asymmetric operations.
IR has an arsenal of over 3K ballistic missiles. The IRGC, with its Quds Force & proxies are still relatively operational & maintain a global presence for unconventional warfare operations, compensating for their conventional weaknesses. More concerning is their indigenous defense industry. Given decades of sanctions, IR was driven to a strategy of self-reliance, enabling them to produce drones, tanks, & naval assets, reducing dependence on foreign supplies. lastly, IR has a clear & distinct geographic and population size advantage (~92M people). Its mountainous terrain & control over the Strait of Hormuz affords natural defenses & provides leverage to disrupt global oil flows. Even if it affects them, IR would still seriously consider this act.
IR also has clear vulnerabilities, especially given the military actions by IS against their regional surrogate forces, but those organizations are not yet fully defeated. IR's biggest military weakness is that some of their conventional forces are outdated. For instance, their air force relies on aging aircraft & lacks modern technology, while their tanks & naval vessels are largely obsolete. IS has so degraded IR's air defense system, it now appears to have air supremacy of the skies over IR. Economic sanctions and economic challenges limit funding for any upgrades or modernization of their military equipment. Additional economic strains on IR will have a direct impact on their military operations. Losses of allies such as the Assad regime in Syria have weakened IR's regional network, reducing its strategic depth. Finally, the advanced technology gap compared to the U.S., Israel, & some European militaries is abysmal w/ its forces lacking advanced command & control & early warning systems, & other cutting-edge weaponry.
These & other factors suggest that if the IR regime survives, it will rely heavily on a strategic defense in depth & asymmetric tactics (regionally & globally). And, even though its conventional capabilities are strained given current military pressures, powers like China and Russia appear to be stepping in to offer their diplomatic and other support. If there were ever an opportunity in recent history for the people of IR to rise against their regime, now is the time.
