SITREP 13.
ATTENTION!
SITREP #13.
Regime Change.
There has been a lot of discussion on regime change given the war between Israel and Iran. What does it mean, what are the challenges, and what are the consequences.
I personally don’t believe the U.S. can deal with a fanatic Iranian regime screaming “death to America” whose people live as though they have a boot on their throat. BUT, it is the people of Iran that have to decide how to get that boot off their throat.
If they find it in them, America will be their best friend on all issues surrounding geo-politics (ie., opening trade, military to military relationships, even likely reopening our embassy which was destroyed and Americans held hostage).
Anyway, this is more of a FYI than a call to action but it’s clear our track record for regime change is poor.
Feedback appreciated.
Regime change summary statistics (U.S. executed regime changes since the Iran regime change in 1953 to the most recent Syria regime change):
Total Regime Change Attempts: ~72
Successful Regime Changes: ~26 (~36% success rate)
Failed Attempts: ~46
Involving War or Military Force: ~16
Involving Assassination Attempts: ~10+
Involving Bribery/Election Meddling: ~30+
Likely Illegal under U.S. Law Today: ~20+
Major sources:
1. Lindsey A. O'Rourke, "Covert Regime Change: America's Secret Cold War" (2018)
2. William Blum, "Killing Hope"
3. Stephen Kinzer, "Overthrow"
4. U.S. Senate Church Committee Report (1975)
Declassified CIA documents and the FRUS series.
