ATTENTION!
Do we have a cease fire between Israel and Iran or not?
SITREP #14
The exact number of ceasefire violations between Israel and Iran since President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on June 23, is difficult to precisely pinpoint due to conflicting reports and a lack of independently verified data. However, based on available information, there have been clear violations on both sides. As I stated in a previous SITREP, ceasefires are dicey.
1. Both sides are pointing fingers.
2. Both sides have violated the ceasefire.
3. Khamanei is claiming victory (NOT A GOOD THING!).
4. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated that any Israeli attacks post-ceasefire would be met with a "decisive, firm, and timely response." We'll see how the fanatics respond.
Specific Incidents:
1. Of Israel acknowledged conducting strikes on Iran just before or shortly after the ceasefire’s start, including a targeted attack on a radar installation near Tehran, which was scaled back after a call between Trump and Netanyahu.
2. Iran reportedly launched a "last round of missiles" against Israel before the ceasefire (yeah right!), with some strikes occurring in the final hours leading up to the truce, potentially overlapping with the ceasefire’s start time. These included attacks that killed four people in Beersheba and injured others (cease fires are dicey).
3. Some reports that Iran is executing people accused of spying for Mossad (what's new?). Don't get caught with a cell phone!
Obviously, there are clear challenges and be careful listening to everyone on X (except yours truly 😎). What I'm providing is what is reported by legit sources.
Challenges determining violations:
1. Ambiguity in timing due to a phased ceasefire. This is why I say, ceasefires are dicey. The word doesn't get out quickly enough to every subordinate commander.
2. Both sides will lie (these will be referred to as "mutual accusations."
3. It is extremely difficult to verify because there is no neutral body to do so. The UN sucks and is anti-Israel anyway.
4. Propaganda and lies (enough said).
SO WHAT?
The most credible reports:
1. There were at least two confirmed Israeli actions post-ceasefire (e.g., the strike on a radar installation near Tehran and possible additional strikes reported by Iranian media).
2. There were at least two Iranian missile launches post-ceasefire, as claimed by Israel, though denied by Iran (sadly, people actually died in Beersheba).
This suggests a minimum of four violations total, though the exact number could be higher depending on unverified strikes or smaller incidents not widely reported.
My assessment: there were clear violations of the ceasefire destroying equipment and killing civilians. The situation remains very fluid. While the Iranian NUCLEAR program appears to have been setback months or years, the regional hatred remains and very little has changed. If the Iranian regime stays in place, very little will change.
Pray for our men and women in uniform because they're the ones who sacrifice and must respond to the gyrations of the political landscape.
God Bless America 🙏🏼
This is why DEI policies should be outlawed as federal discrimination crimes…oh that’s right, discrimination is already outlawed.
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ATTENTION!
SITREP #13.
Regime Change.
There has been a lot of discussion on regime change given the war between Israel and Iran. What does it mean, what are the challenges, and what are the consequences.
I personally don’t believe the U.S. can deal with a fanatic Iranian regime screaming “death to America” whose people live as though they have a boot on their throat. BUT, it is the people of Iran that have to decide how to get that boot off their throat.
If they find it in them, America will be their best friend on all issues surrounding geo-politics (ie., opening trade, military to military relationships, even likely reopening our embassy which was destroyed and Americans held hostage).
Anyway, this is more of a FYI than a call to action but it’s clear our track record for regime change is poor.
Feedback appreciated.
Regime change summary statistics (U.S. executed regime changes since the Iran regime change in 1953 to the most recent Syria regime change):
Total Regime Change Attempts: ~72
...
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I’ve spent my life defending this nation, and I’m here to give it to you straight: the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment from our Intelligence Community (IC) is a wake-up call. Released this month by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, it lays bare the dangers we face—both from beyond our borders and within. This isn’t just a report for policymakers; it’s a battle plan for every patriot who cares about our future. Here’s what you need to know.
