SITREP: Iran War Next Steps (What should President Donald J. Trump do now)?
Trump should double down on “peace through strength” with immediate, targeted military, economic & diplomatic pressure rather than chasing another round of endless talks that are only buying the Iranian regime & its CCP weapons depot time.
Like this war or not (and I do not), what is good for America is to figure out the best way to declare victory & turn this gas station over to those who benefit most.
Face it, the regime won’t voluntarily surrender its nuclear insurance policy nor its ability to extort the world via the Strait of Hormuz. Not happening.
Here’s my initial take on the next moves, based on the facts on the ground time now.
1. Remain absolutely rock steady. This is not a time to blink. Enforce the ultimatum with calibrated strikes. Let Iran know as well as China & North Korea and any other bad actor that deadlines are not suggestions. They have meaning & they have teeth.
2. Execute a maximum economic pressure campaign. Essentially strangle the regime’s revenue. Reimpose & expand secondary sanctions on anyone buying Iranian oil or helping evade restrictions. The reopening of the Straits of Hormuz issue is economic warfare. Keep it open by naval presence if needed but place demands on those nations who benefit the most to step up & provide security guarantees. Iran’s economy is hurting now so pair sanctions with public messaging that relief only comes after verifiable nuclear dismantlement & cessation of support for proxy groups (these groups have not only attacked Israel, they’ve attacked & killed/maimed thousands of Americans over decades). Starve the IRGC & the mullahs, don’t subsidize them as previous administrations have done.
3. Execute a strategic messaging campaign amplifying support for the Iranian people. Regime change from within is the long game (face it Mr. POTUS , there hasn’t been any sort of effective regime change yet). However, there are clear cracks in the regime. Broadcast that the U.S. stands with Iranians who want to ditch the theocracy, and not with the Supreme Leader’s successors. There will be no U.S. “boots on the ground”. Instead smartly apply asymmetry and hybrid aspects of warfare (ie., info ops, cyber support, shrewdly backing opposition voices, etc). History shows authoritarian regimes crack when their own populations turn on them. This isn’t neoconservative nation-building, it’s leveraging America’s soft power where it works.
4. Initiate diplomatic isolation, instead of getting into endless talks.
Work the partnerships & alliances that matter (some in Asia have little choice due to energy needs). Many of these partners want Iran contained anyway. Like it or not, even reluctant players in Europe must be engaged. Only use back channels if Iran shows real movement. No more “frameworks” or 10-point plans that buy the regime time. They haven’t worked in Ukraine, they most certainly won’t work with Iran. The U.S. has great leverage (superior military, energy independence, & strong alliances) while Iran has none, except short-term disruption.
Mr. Trump, you already said it, they have “no cards.” Act like it. This isn’t warmongering, it’s realism.
The JCPOA-era carrots first approach was a spectacular failure. Iran enriched closer to weapons-grade while pocketing billions of U.S. dollars in cash. President Trump’s first-term pressure campaign brought them to the table before. Now, post-strikes, & with a fresh ceasefire broken on their end, hesitation just invites more attacks on shipping, proxies, & eventually a nuclear fate accomplished.
President Trump‘s instincts here have been right so far (project strength, set clear terms, and don’t negotiate with weakness). Follow through decisively & Iran folds or collapses. The alternative are more talks while they rebuild. That’s how we got here in the first place.
As you said Mr. President, the U.S. wins either way. Time to make it obvious.
