Breaking: Thoughts on Exiting this War in the Middle East
It has become very clear that the majority of Americans are not happy with the war with Iran and it is also clear the POTUS is searching for an exit strategy to extricate ourselves from this war.
How should we exit?
The United States can easily exit its direct military involvement in this conflict by treating any drawdown as a deliberate, conditions-based success rather than a retreat.
This is not wishful thinking.
This idea aligns with how great powers have historically managed limited wars when core objectives are met or costs outweigh benefits.
The key is timing, sequencing, and maintaining deterrence during any drawdown so adversaries (ie., Iran & its proxies) see it as strength, and not a weakness.
President Donald J. Trump has made it clear that we are not in an open-ended war.
The U.S. & Israeli strikes on Iran targeted nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and leadership targets, including killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei. We accomplished our stated objectives.
The rapid (tactical) degradation of Iranian capabilities caused severe damage but also caused an immediate (and somewhat unexpected) retaliation from Iran. Despite Iran paying a heavy price in infrastructure destruction, international isolation, and economic disruption, the regime has sustained control over their country. And unlike Afghanistan & Iraq, regime was never a stated objective.
This is not a Vietnam (helicopters out of Saigon) or Afghanistan (truck bomb at Abbey Gate) type scenario. There are no large U.S. combat formations trapped in endless occupation.
Our exit is logistically straightforward.
1. Wind down the blockade.
2. Reduce carrier presence.
3. Shift advisory/support roles to partners who have a greater need for regional security and access.
4. Assess the factions remaining inside Iran and whether they require assistance and how that assistance can be delivered.
So what?
Adversaries test resolve while allies watch for abandonment. These dynamics must be understood.
What next and are their viable paths?
1. Declare mission accomplished on core objectives and negotiate a favorable armistice. Keep the current talks going and bring in other participants as needed.
2. Maintain a light footprint in the region and hand off the “peace dividend” and reconstruction to multilateral forums (ie., the Gaza Board of Peace).
3. State that America is conducting a strategic reset and reprioritizing global demands (this is necessary anyway, does not mean defeat and could simply be stated by announcing a pivot). America doesn’t need the quagmire that the Middle East has been any longer. The real political losers were those that got us into AFG & Iraq in the first place. The U.S. is making a strategic calculation here to continue peace efforts but resetting for future opportunities and challenges.
Are there Risks?
1. Iran will attempt to exploit as their win and our loss. To deter this, America must demonstrate that deterrence in the future is about capability and will (which Americans have in abundance if our vital interests are at risk) and not permanent presence.
2. Allied perception will cause uncertainty. The Israeli government and Gulf states will worry about abandonment. Simply reassure them w/ continuation of both security guarantees and arms flows tied to their own restraint.
3. On the domestic front, the NEOCON hawks will cry in their soup, while America First voices will cheer Trump’s deal making success.
These are just some initial thoughts. Great powers throughout history involved in previous campaigns have exited limited wars when gains begin to diminish.
A path clearly exists.
Execution now depends on clear communications from the Trump administration that strength enabled America’s exit.
God Bless our Troops and God Bless America🙏🏼🇺🇸
