Breaking (the internet):
CCP President Xi’s use of the term, “Thucydides Trap” during his opening comments to POTUS has everyone wondering …
WHAT THE …. ?
Xi’s remark on the Thucydides trap is a classic piece of Chinese diplomatic signaling; polite on the surface, however, very sharp and pointed underneath. It’s a reminder to our president (and the world) that Beijing (Xi) sees itself as the rising power in a structural rivalry with a (supposedly) established hegemon (the U.S.), and that any failure to accommodate China’s ascent risks major conflict which the United States cannot afford (and there is practically zero support from the American people currently for more war and Xi knows it).
Examining it another way, President Xi stated it intentionally to show China as Sparta (rising, dynamic, rightful heir to greater influence) and the U.S. as Athens (established but fearful and in decline). To some students of warfare, this may be an imperfect analogy, but the fact he used this phrase must be clearly and thoroughly examined.
Xi is signaling that the U.S. should step back gracefully, especially on Taiwan (and never lose site of what Xi has already said about Taiwan; One (1) China, and he’s not backing down), checking trade & tech restrictions, and increasingly regional dominance, rather than the U.S. attempting to further impede China’s “rejuvenation” efforts.
Essentially, it was a veiled warning:
Push too hard (ie., on Taiwan or decoupling), and structural tensions could lead to an extremely dangerous place.
Lastly, I believe Xi’s use of this ancient theory on warfare is explicitly tied to Taiwan tensions. At the same time, it’s cooperative language as well. Typical use of smart diplomatic double speak the Chinese are masters at.
Xi addressing a new paradigm, a brighter future for humanity because he knows the world is watching and listening and studying.
This is standard CCP diplomacy that keeps the door open for deals while putting the onus on the U.S. to avoid escalation.
Bottom line, and like it or not, he let Trump know you’re in my house now and we set the rules here.
FYI only, Thucydides wrote about the Peloponnesian War. The War (431–404 BC) was a devastating 27-year conflict between Athens and Sparta. It was driven by Sparta’s fears of growing Athenian (ie., U.S.) imperialism, the war ended with the total defeat of Athens, fundamentally altering the ancient Greek world and ending its “Golden Age.”
The Peloponnesian war lasted more than two decades. I’d say we’re somewhere in the late third quarter and time favors the watchmakers and not the watch-watchers.
We need to keep in mind that President Donald J. Trump isn’t the only one who understands nor read the art of the deal.
